The Shanghai index to see my four thousand points, and the Chinese stock market reversal just around the corner of the article, I feel like talking about are not wrong. Now most people have forgotten the end of last year when I point Outlook 1800 optimistic,UGG boots clearance, but forget 2 years ago, I put forward in 5000 when the law, I do not feel uncomfortable, I feel that this was better, making China the behavior of stock market investors had become more predictable.
about the future development of China's stock market, I would like to talk about some abstract,UGG bailey button, distant things, hope for close observation inspired the stock market at large.
a market economy, incentives inherent problems
deflation, the market for the high valuation of equity asset classes, encourage innovation, increase efficiency, improve the process. inflation, the market discount to the equity asset class is the same way. bottom out of the market economy as part of their repair. to the end of the financial crisis did not break the laws of the market economy itself, if this rare financial crisis is the end of the market economy, then whether we are holding cash or a stock will not affect the final outcome of the trial on religion.
deflation will lead to rising stock market, price-earnings ratio of negative CPI makes the previously used method of valuation seems at a loss. awash with liquidity, Ye Hao, sufficient right; monetary policy easing Ye Hao, moderately easy both mean the result of deflation. stock market rose itself is the result of deflation, do not establish a causal regression between the two results.
At the same time, we should clearly recognize that each time the bull market has a theme, and this increase seems to apply the theme is not obvious or are still in the last financial and real estate topics. So I think the rise is not an independent or a complete bull, but the valuation system under the conditions of deflation corresponding changes in the results.
Second, the stock market valuation methods
I remember long ago read a magazine report, about a working model of oil exploration companies. I think they are really a number of philosophical home, their work deserves investors thinking friends learn: a well for a discussion of whether there is oil below is dangerous and wrong, because the crushed even with oil, you knew nothing about the other things that could cause you huge amounts of money to open a small isolated basins; crushed without oil, can also lead to your loss, because you might victimizes the then into the 2 feet of a big discovery. you have to start looking for oil off of paleontology, with complex means to restore the hundreds of millions of years ago what it was like the earth,Bailey UGG boots, where there will be a wealth of biological precipitation. and then proceed to look for oil, must be the discovery .- I wonder why some people say but can see farther away from the market, the market trend, but to make more money, is not what is the truth?
us next week on the stock market trend, the trend of one plate is pointless to discuss, we should be based on a variety of clues to the future reduction China's economic blueprint, the blueprint for the control and then check the current market, identify the bull stock. Unfortunately, I still see no good picture of the blueprint for China's future, if any, this will be the next the theme of the bull market.
Third, on the mechanism of liquidity and currency issues when
inflation in coming? printing more money is equal to the inflation? what is to print money? central bank liquidity is to print money put it? commercial bank credit is to print money invested? This is a heavy question mark, and we can not immediately jump to the conclusion of inflation up. I saw the article and the comments many people, they are the default amount of credit now a large, central bank loose monetary policy is to join the global printing money with the chorus, inflation is coming soon.
these comrades is childish remarks. We face several months for the CPI and PPI data negative to say how Inflation is expected to increase it? mind if you think so, then you have committed such an error is equivalent to: Suppose you are in the liberated areas in 1949, heard the command of the PLA score one victory of Chairman Mao crossed the Yangtze River, you Instead of Jiang Junguang complex had higher expectations. This ridiculous ah!
I had wanted to name and shame these comrades, but then I heard they are very happy to be named, because their appeal is often named focus, rather than find the truth. Now many people believe that the women of remark that this round of increases is simply because due to ample liquidity, I looked at those sympathetic comrades, I believe that if they strong enough,Discount UGG boots, it must be able to play well drilling enough depth, until the other side of the globe put up an antenna. Until that day, they will believe that they are looking for oil in the wrong place.
If this round of credit, infrastructure and led to more serious overcapacity Will more serious deflation? In that case, whether there will be bad debts? If there bad debts, will once again through the central end of 2001 the decision of the Central Financial Work Conference? loans with central bank again way for commercial banks, asset management companies replace non-performing loans. If this is the case, that is, printing money out. But that printing money, we will witness a more serious deflation. I do not know if there will be such a road map. In general, after a joint-stock reform of commercial banks after a year can not divest non-performing assets to enjoy free lunch, because they have no reason to let all the people pay for their own mistakes. So, I think, is to loosen credit, increase infrastructure The result is not inflation, but more serious deflation.
more and more people now believe that I predicted for the four thousand points, they have asked me, after four thousand points to what would happen? I that if inflation now appeared, then please see my
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