China's commercial real estate situation and future trends - Xiecheng Long

 China, commercial real estate because of its emergence and development time is not long, complicated process, said that currently there is no exact theory of authority and norms of the Collection for a comprehensive reference guide. Rough calculation, if China's reform and opening up from the 80's there counting beginning signs of a market economy, has still less than three decades, while truly be regarded as, or professes to be What is a commercial real estate? The concept of divergent views, no one in the strict sense of the rhetoric to regulate. I play and simple to resolve by Chaizi: can be understood as: business operations management and real estate investment and development pattern of the combination, while the composite mode of operation of the project is usually accompanied by a long cycle of high investment, industry professionals require complex, high risk and high return on investment and other basic features. commercial real estate in accordance with the different forms can be divided into: large and very large shopping malls, community shopping centers, retail trade, wholesale market, specializing in the retail market, theme malls, commercial streets and pedestrian streets, community retail stores, large-scale integrated supermarket, a variety of chain stores, professional chain stores, retail stores, modern life and a variety of commercial office market, etc., there will be various types of formats such as hotels and catering and entertainment areas into commercial real estate. My view is simple, The carrier shell is a commercial real estate, real estate, the core of the soul is a commercial operation, can lead to three types of commercial real estate values, one real estate property value itself, first commercial flow of value-added business, one business operations and real estate development of the brand many types of value-added .<><> commercial real estate in the form of turned around very representative of the four forms, one is large or very large shopping malls and regional shopping centers as the representative form MALL (shopping mall) . The concept of shopping malls first appeared in the 20th century, 30 years, mainly in the Americas, an area in the tens of thousands of square from top to bottom, changes in 50 years to become a regional shopping center, shopping malls began to appear 80 years, an area of hundreds of thousands of square feet, to 90 years, the giant shopping center there. In China, shopping centers, especially in large and giant shopping center quickly became the eyes of most people synonymous with commercial real estate. shopping center is a well-known commercial form, its background is the city Residents of the needs of modern consumption patterns, their target customers are public in nature, its construction must take the appropriate regional purchasing power is the basis of volume large format shopping complex is the most vulnerable without personality, featureless in error. According to information reflected in the development of shopping centers are the current outbreak of investment, many second-tier cities competing for a large number of large shopping centers, shopping comparisons and even the tendency of scale, this situation will inevitably lead to homogenization of the competition and over- repeated investment. Therefore, in the near future, shopping will shape commercial real estate investment and construction by the blind and disorderly competition and themes into the digestive characteristics of a rational competitive inclusive state. some mature developer and operator is already in the Movement of a new round of shopping theme, seek to build quickly find the outbreak of the highly competitive and innovative feature set of the form to show the positioning of commercial real estate, praying through circle so bloated after the outbreak of the body to digest the amount. This will also lead to a new round of shuffling the various commercial activities, business circles all kinds of potential business restructuring, and finally lead to a commercial operation because of potential vector of moving real estate, investment opportunity to layer out. Meanwhile, the construction of the aftermath of the outbreak, a number of blind investment and operating strength of the shopping centers do not have the rights and interests will occur, or reorganization of assets changing hands, will be operational by some considerable investment strength and operation of infrastructure operators have the resources or the ability to integrate the operations of financial investors entered in various ways in an attempt to plunder under certain conditions to avoid the risk of high value-added and high return. However, one thing to note many commercial real estate in the form of shopping is The most tested medium to long term capital and operational investment, if holding a short-term speculative, not lay a finger! on the Mall, I think some of the views are worth considering: For example, there is a consensus that the generally based on the shopping center as an investment tool value analysis, discuss how the value of the mall to cash in capital markets, investment funds and common needs of developers. The value of the core of the first shopping center to its stable core earnings to translate into real value of capital market analysis. In the traditional business model, the shopping center under the premise of a unified title unification operation, is currently the continent's main shopping business success model, this model's main income is usually stable order of their importance: rent, management charge (integrated services), advertising, leasing, parking revenue and income, and so field activity. if we can on this basis in-depth study and understanding of consumer behavior and habits, contact the consumer and business demand for change in the dynamic between and to maximize the creation and to meet these two requirements, an integrated innovation and its derivatives, to obtain the corresponding derivative gains. usually after a successful shopping center integrated innovation, resulting in derivative gains can reach 20% -40 main income % or even more, and that the proceeds derived from the growth in earnings growth on the main effect of a year. From here you can see, this form of shopping center development potential of commercial real estate and development of future space does not stay in a simple scale between the area and the hardware level, but the ability to provide high value-added growth. Of course, this must be highly dependent on investors, developers and operators of the organic integration of the .<><> China Business Another property is the most representative form of is its industry and professional. This form of shopping centers and the aforementioned very different, even opposite. It is a small minority of target customers and industry-specific, relatively small in terms of known and shopping. ICBD elegant name concept born out of the city CBD, and more is in a relatively concentrated area, a collection of one or more industry-specific trade, sourcing, exhibition, research, information, logistics, finance is one of the project, the most prominent form is trade, while others are supporting services. In the early evaluation of the general government, and more to species as the main value of the function to reflect the distribution of commercial real estate is almost accompanied by the birth of reform and opening up, definitely turned in to break the planned economy market economy came into being over the transition process. These element is that we often say that the professional market, and the professional market to cover the wholesale market, specializing in the retail market and a number of wholesale and retail markets with the professional theme, the professional market though and not because of their industry characteristics of the high level of awareness for the public, however, the field of commercial real estate in China is important. At present our large-scale professional market, the large number of economic construction, social development, trade and business, people's lives, and played an extraordinarily important role. According to incomplete statistics, the information At present there are 90,000 more than the country of various types of professional trading market, total annual turnover of nearly 5 trillion yuan, while the annual turnover of billion of market reached more than 4,000 (of which over 10 billion yuan more than 500 months, over 100 billion over more than 40), which trades the number of distinct professional market accounts for about 55% of the professional wholesale market, about 60% of the total turnover of the wholesale market turnover more than 70%, trading more than 20% annual growth rate, is the country more than twice the GDP growth rate (above the data collected from the professional real estate consultants for reference). In recent years, China's professional market in size, function, operation and management aspects with the social, economic, cultural and other market factors underlying the changes at different levels, has witnessed a booming trend .<><> the formation of a specific reason, multi-core performance to the professional market. Most of the Chinese professional wholesale market, which originated in the early '80s, largely formed by the four aspects, namely the original farmers markets and country markets on the basis of developed; the second is the original commercial, food, supplies, supply and distribution sector, such as buying and selling centers formed on the basis; third is very dedicated to the quasi-market demand pull of economic development to adapt to the requirements of the construction. Fourth, the traditional the relative concentration of production and free trade zone development together. in the hierarchy level, a lot of the professional market as a whole can be divided by one, two, three: the one based on industry resources, relying on the central city, contact the manufacturer directly and is primary market (such as industrial clusters specialized market); the secondary market is the transportation hub as the basis, wholesale trade, distribution, and then down an extension of the market (distribution center for the professional market); the third-level market-oriented terminal Market Market (a regional professional market) .90 Since the Chinese wholesale market has entered a period of rapid growth in the number, type, function, etc. have been developed rapidly to become China's economic development to a new growth point. now , China has initially formed the industrial products, agricultural products, commodities, construction decoration materials, such as the main means of production, including leather, metal, building materials, home, food, clothing, textiles, electrical appliances, electronics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, auto parts , toys, machinery, etc., various types of integrated professional market, a market economy system, an important part. Statistics show that nationwide more than 4,000 hundred million in the professional market, with the amount of the first 8 provinces are: Zhejiang Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei, Liaoning, Hubei, Hunan, China accounted for more than 66% of the number (above data from the network to collect ).<><> professional market experienced four revolutions, the first generation professional market is a traditional market place stalls system, the concentration of demand in a number of places to complete a transaction, the wholesale market is the completion of this function, the supplier needs to sell those goods, the demand and then shipped to the producer and retailers, the market is low-level form; With the improvement in the level of organization, procurement or supplier in number and size increases, the wholesale market in the past has not qualified for this change began with the evolution and the emergence of the first professional logistics function second generation of the wholesale market; the third generation of professional market is a professional display market began to become commodity-based sites, such wholesale markets are often relatively large, to demonstrate the main wholesale market transactions, is the key trends, the international trade As background, for many domestic enterprises to provide a platform for the international market for many foreign companies to display products in China; set of enterprise e-commerce cluster display of modern logistics procurement of goods in one of the fourth generation of the birth of the modern professional market is its professional market-based integrated service platform is the industry truly international procurement centers. fourth-generation wholesale market in China Yiwu International Commodities markets such as the most typical to the reality of China Yiwu International Commodities City, reality based, virtual e-commerce Platform (China Commodity Digital City) for the new position to produce, supply, marketing, transportation, foreign trade, mature industry chain stop to protect and ensure the prosperity and development of an orderly market, and the network showing a faster rate of volume growth and development, the real e-commerce platform based on the professional market of scale and brand expansion .<><> after nearly 20 years of continuous development of the professional market in the allocation of resources, expansion of domestic demand, and guide the production, invigorate the circulation , the formation of prices, find jobs, increase tax revenue to promote economic development has played an important role, driven around the goods flow, capital flow, information flow, personnel flow and healthy development. than be the professional market as the main commercial distribution industry Center's basic situation and development law. According to the status and laws, the main focus of its future development trends can be summed up as follows :<><> 1, scale and expertise to the industry, functional direction. China's commodity markets are increasingly converting to the professional market, professional market, more and more to the wholesale conversion, the number of wholesale markets, the business area increased year by year, turnover rose sharply, but not with characteristics of the integrated market is shrinking year by year. On the one hand, large-scale wholesale market continued to grow and improve with the growing range of radiation transport, on the other hand, SMEs and products offered by operators are rapidly expanding the scale. the future, the formation of dozens of the country a like Yiwu China Commodity City, Shaoxing China Textile City, Yongkang China Technology Hardware City, Wuhan Hanzhengjie, Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market, a large market for glory in Anqing transactions in excess of billions of carrier-class focus on the professional market is inevitable, they will play an important distribution hub for goods, import and export base and wholesale radiation center functions. The scale of the development, but also will inevitably lead to large or very large professional wholesale market are increasingly turning to professional radiation functions, and gradually leave the end of the sales commercial and retail markets around the small, dirty, chaotic, poor, scattered small and medium traditional wholesale market will be gradually reduced and removed from dense urban population centers .<><> 2, the industry trend of more and more obvious professional , the industry classification is getting smaller. market competition becomes more intense, forcing many commodity trading market has been extended to the production sector, to facilitate the smooth supply channels, quality control supply, reduce distribution costs, relying on the industrial base, to establish competitive price. This will lead to business between the various markets and product categories on the range of differentiation and segmentation is getting smaller, focused sales or a region of a particular class, and even certain brands of goods, through the operating characteristics in order to obtain the maximum breadth and intensity of the radiation, occupying the best location advantage. This is the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and other regions has been evident that, in addition to the traditional wholesale markets, many Mainland Composite market or retail market for a small class of goods, such as textiles , hardware, toys, hotel supplies, packaging machinery, agricultural products, cosmetics, glasses, etc. in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta has developed into a very professional and large-scale wholesale market .<><> chain industry cluster 3, will be operational and trading information and intensive one. In fact, not a simple commodity wholesale transfer station must have the realization of four functions to be perfect, and gradually build wholesale goods distribution center, information center, pricing center and unified billing center. out of the booth system RenJian rival trading patterns, the wide application of information technology network of stalls traditional transaction-based operating system will have a fundamental impact on the market. the chain, agency, distribution, sale, information interaction, and other modern marketing methods to introduce wholesale market, bold exploration network transactions, warehouse management operations, which qualify for a modern wholesale market transactions . We should actively promote the wholesale market information network, and gradually form a national network of information network system to realize tangible and intangible market, the organic integration of the market, and promote circulation of the wholesale market to adapt to modern demands for reform towards the direction of .<><> ; 4, will be diverse forms of institutional and investment changes. around the practice has proved that a single wholesale market of investment management, no longer suited to wholesale market development. actively guide the wholesale market operation and management system to a modern enterprise system in the direction of development, through the restructuring of the existing wholesale markets, restructuring, efforts to achieve cross-ownership, cross-sectoral, cross-regional joint, to achieve the strategic reorganization of the wholesale market through wholesale joint-stock form of management, and foster a number of national large wholesalers and large agents. strengthening the joint, the development trend of the market economy, the same market through mergers, alliances, expand the size of the market, the introduction of modern enterprise management system, enhance the competitiveness of the market and wholesale radiation to promote the professional market .<><> further prosperity and development of the above analysis, China's future inside the field of professional commercial real estate market will become a major part of major expansion of the expansion, and even the core of many regional economies, how to respond to its key features and development trend is well worth the attention of investors and operators eternal subject of .<><> form the next look at the commercial real estate in the business district Street (pedestrian street) mode. community-oriented commercial district or city Street and commercial pedestrian street is the current city the more prominent commercial real estate in the form of a representative. In recent years, commercial pedestrian street is becoming a new investment hot spot of Chinese cities and urban business cards, 80 years since the 20th century, China began building a modern commercial pedestrian street. In the 21st century, many cities in China began planning and construction of pedestrian street in the climax, a commercial pedestrian street to enhance the image of China's urban construction and an important part of .<><> According to incomplete statistics Pedestrian Street Working Committee , As of now, the national stock of Commercial Street cities above county level have been over 3000, the stock of commercial pedestrian street has more than 200. in every street the average total length of 600 meters, total length of National City Commercial Street has more than 1800 km. The average size of each street to 50,000 square meter building, the total size of city commercial street accumulated more than 150 million square meters. some of the city's new commercial street length is from 1 km 2 km 3 km extension to constantly refresh and create new records. more urban planning in the next 5-10 years, creating 10 or more commercial street. can be expected in the next 2-3 years, the number of National Commercial Street will be over 5000. <> < > shopping malls in China has a bright future, which is China's specific national conditions of the decision. First, the development of the Chinese car late, people prefer to walk to the nearest commercial focus and the safety of pedestrian shopping mall; II because of the deep-rooted Chinese traditions nostalgia, China's ancient capital, city, town, ancient street a lot, most of the traditional commercial street a hundred years, several hundred years of history, it is the traditional national industry and commerce meets West, there is too much famous monuments, historical allusions, myths and legends, has a heavy sense of history and traditional culture penetration, is fresh and The country, love the fair, in the urban downtown area, shopping, leisure, entertainment, dining and sightseeing in one of the pedestrian street is bound to become local residents and overseas visitors the best choice; Fourth, because the pedestrian street is not only carrying it shopping areas, but also the city's , thus reflecting a city's overall image. (The above information comes from the commercial pedestrian street in China Research Center Advisory Committee )<><> good business model or the District Street Pedestrian Mall is to appropriately use the city operation and development plan, will form before the integration of a number of commercial real estate in a particular tradition or historical business operations planning of large new urban platform, can be a variety of retail formats and shopping malls and large stores such as integration, the success of the area Street business, so much the commercial real estate development, it is more operational development of the city to be more appropriate .<><> of the pedestrian street in the future as the main form of commercial street mode will work with the international standards, from the traditional integrated area of spontaneous formation of street commerce, transformation and upgrading into a core theme of attractive features with distinctive local or regional cultural identity District Street business portfolio, the world is more classic street business district is very much, I that the near Akihabara, Japan and South Korea should learn from Myeong-dong are, of course, the District Street business model to rely more and co-led government level, not simply the spontaneous formation of, or investors planning development can be achieved, especially in the political system of China, under the .<><> present, there have been many real estate investors and developers have targeted China Street, replacement and upgrading of business model transformation, with the Government, the use of City planning the transformation of the machine operation of urban land resources vigorously plunder, via the government urban renewal and re-integration of elements of the urban core commercial real estate, full of commercial real estate investment and development of innovative operational model to achieve business value and high return on investment, of course, their success is a prerequisite for adequate funding and resources, government relations and a mature development of the operations team and so .<><> Finally, we also recognize what the upstart urban commercial real estate: Theme business platform. in the commercial real estate, especially line will be in some cities in the late 90's quietly developed artificially newer forms of commercial real estate, which is based on consumption as the core object to spending habits as the axis of the theme of innovative business platform. This form of commercial real estate can become a representative, not because of its particular geographical location, not because of its large size, not because of its first-class facilities, but its response to market changes in consumer demand, organic integration of the industry's avant-garde model format and innovation highly representative. undoubtedly the country's representative for Guangzhou, the first successful concept of well-known commercial real estate projects the subway: kinds of people colored consumption; professional market is a niche in nature, industry-specific, in the business with a specific exclusive distribution level; area is the city street business cards, commercial real estate has been a bit out of the scope of the study; so, in fact, the theme Business Platform more like some kid playing alone, inadvertently hiding under the big people's attention, the viewer is not aware that they have built a broad summer, the adults also had no idea what the so-called theme !<><> business platform that is a definite creative business model, the main features of the commercial business from the traditional way by the main features of the product installed for a distinction between objects and consumer behavior by the consumer to integrate the past, the business platform and business forms is often the way of trade or business category of goods divided into different types of business, such as department store formats, retail stores, chain stores, supermarkets or shopping malls apparel, electrical computer shopping, fine jewelry shopping malls and so on. The theme of business platform In the full study is divided into levels of consumer spending and consumer behavior on the basis of division, integration and consumer spending habits similar type of object on a platform of consumer goods, the type of goods not associated with sex, no relationship between business practices, transactions do not relevance, all of the association are in consumer behavior, so the emergence of different ages, different educational levels, different income groups of consumers tend to focus on a similar spending habits to meet the business platform, form a unique business model, the business due to its unique theme and uniqueness, usually formed in a certain geographical area business highlights, trading boom, in such a business platform business gain an objective to attract more businesses competing to seek presence This business platform resulting from soaring rental value of shops, both for investors and the lessee can bring an objective return on investment and promote the rapidly around the value-added commercial real estate. to Guangzhou's The average rental price is publicly about 150 yuan per square, and now second and third grade average price of the rental market is about 2,000 yuan per square, just more than seven years, rents have doubled the value of ten times, that is a must- In fact, the theme of business miracle .<><> future of commercial real estate is certainly an important means to achieve high growth and the advanced mode, both the fine characteristics of the humble business platform, or commercial catering and entertainment services platform, and even the professional market and shopping centers are subject to varying degrees of attempts in order to achieve commercial and real estate more than double value of the maximum .<><> focused presentations by commercial real estate, respectively, inside the four rather special form to let us base commercial real estate in mainland China to understand the current situation and future trends, from the macro level, the overall commercial real estate to do a little bold and forward-looking, I think the following can be roughly summed up some of the features and direction of :<><> I. real estate investment and development direction and vision gradually transferred to the commercial real estate .<><> policies are rolled out, commercial real estate market will be further standardized and improved. such as in . State Council part of the investment market, from residential to commercial real estate market. At present, domestic, foreign, developers, operators, go hand in hand, setting off a wave of expansion of commercial real estate climax. has always taken most of the enterprises development strategy of expansion has maintained a strong momentum of development. a group of a firm foothold in the regional market companies have begun to step the pace of expansion in different places; many foreign-funded enterprises have also joined the wave of expansion of commercial real estate, commercial real estate so that more voice sounded strong. In fact, most of the real estate industry who have not denied, just as ten years ago, commercial real estate market, home appliances, full of variables and opportunities, will also be entered in the next few years through some shuffling process .<><> Second, a large number of overseas capital aimed at the domestic commercial real estate big cake for segmentation .<><> future commercial real estate financing changes in the emergence of new, diverse patterns of previews, the domestic financial environment, extrusion, commercial real estate companies are seeking new financing mode, REITS as an ideal form of commercial real estate financing is generally good. but because of the conditions listed overseas and higher threshold, REITS success in China is also a source of foreign investment into China .2005 total amount of the real estate market up to 23 billion, including the purchase of shops and offices in 16 billion. Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup Capital has four overseas-scale presence in China real estate investment, international investment bank Temasek Foundation money in gold and buy Tiger Fund also funded enterprises through equity, aimed against the domestic high-quality commercial properties. foreign capital into the mainland commercial real estate market, and domestic competition in addition to traditional real estate companies have cooperation adding big cake in the cake while it will also cut points. overseas capital poured into and in-depth development of the commercial real estate market, ; Third, commercial real estate development and urban linkage between operational planning .<><> closely with economic development, commercial real estate has increasingly become the focus of state and government have been aware of and began to plan for the urban operations The commercial real estate investment and development with the control and guidance, opportunities will appear. If format alternative opportunities, at present China's commercial street shops and community services are still limited to the shopping and living services, leisure and entertainment facilities are concentrated in the traditional business center, as consumers of leisure, entertainment and experiential consumer demand increases, to meet community and regional small and medium sized leisure and commercial projects the market will be the future development of the hot spots. such as chain expansion opportunities, the expansion of large commercial chain enterprises impulse will demand for commercial properties to form a new power, the chain of commercial enterprises and large-scale increase in the demand for commercial properties. At the same time, nationwide commercial network planning forward, accelerate the transformation of the traditional wholesale markets, but also formed a commercial real estate demand for almost a year. If New opportunities for development, due to traffic congestion, their prices are too high, excessive competition, the traditional commercial district's competitiveness and attractiveness is declining, and more business will be the future of urban commercial center of a new pattern. suburban residential comprehensive development and road improvements, new community business center for the development of new opportunities and so on. Commerce Department hearing system is a strong policy signal .<><> four professional role as an independent operator in the field of commercial real estate commercial real estate .<><> mode of operation in the next few years from the commercial real estate real estate development model to change the mode of operation, from the development of age to operate the change of time. the current commercial real estate are basically on the basis of the traditional extended from real estate, we more to commercial real estate and real estate, etc., as the traditional s, no professional business operations concepts, and no professional business operators. The idea of commercial operation of the development order will be generally agreed that the face of the commercial real estate development The various difficulties, more commercial real estate development companies based on actual market conditions, positive thinking, began to adjust the way they operate commercial real estate. residential development-type recognition. domestic commercial real estate operation and management mechanism is gradually maturing in line with characteristics of commercial real estate development law and concept of operations became popular .<><> five core competitiveness of commercial real estate transferred to the operating team from the Capital .<><> past and current commercial real estate more people concerned about the situation in the capital, where there is capital in addition to financial control capacity of land resources. the future of commercial real estate projects will eventually implement the core competencies to engage in commercial real estate development and management of business enterprises, relying on commercial real estate capital of the entity, formed the core competitiveness. Meanwhile, the first element of core competencies must be team strengths, which have a long experience in commercial real estate management team commercial real estate development and management in the whole process should be dominant. talent although very important, but talent is not a single core competitiveness, and only a period of time, dominant groups can only be called core competencies. <> < > In addition to these some of the features and direction of the future of commercial real estate development also faces some challenges. such as the blind development, investment deficiencies, the way they operate defects, inadequate management of late troubled commercial real estate will be four issues. part of the city's commercial real estate blind investment and construction has brought a very large surplus, the data shows, commercial real estate vacancy rate is now close to 30%, nearly 3,000 square meters of vacant space occupied by a lot of money, the formation of wasteful investment. commercial real estate many investors did not need to build business by operating buildings, most of the day after the transformation and the lack of necessary equipment, defects. part of the commercial real estate investment management style is built to sell the entire business model is split, the overall function of limited commercial facilities, commercial real estate disputes after the sale, service, lack of overall management also follow. Therefore, how to handle the process of commercial real estate development challenges, it will be the future key to the development of commercial real estate more than is good .<><> Assistant to Chairman Deng Guojian Enterprise Group. ..